Economic & Financial Skills

Participants will learn to:

• Evaluate oil & gas projects using NPV, IRR, PI, Payback, EMV, VOI, ROACE.
• Build and interpret deterministic and probabilistic cashflow models.
• Analyse exploration, LNG, upstream, midstream, and petrochemical project economics.
• Understand and apply international fiscal systems: PSC, royalty/tax, concession, sliding scales.

Risk & Uncertainty

• Quantify technical uncertainties (reservoir, drilling, capex/opex, price).
• Apply Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic ranges, and risked economic indicators.
• Evaluate price volatility, inflation, exchange rates, and sensitivity to CAPEX/OPEX.
• Build decision trees and apply real options & value of information (VOI).

Decision Quality & Investment Screening

• Conduct scenario analysis for strategic and operational decisions.
• Evaluate portfolio risk for multi‑project environments.
• Apply commercial screening (breakeven price, supply curve, fiscal limits).
• Present decisions to management using transparent, defensible analytics.

• Asset Managers, Project Managers, Field Development Engineers
• Economists, Planners, Strategy & Business Development Professionals
• Exploration Managers, Reservoir/Production Engineers
• Financial Analysts, Corporate Finance & Investment Teams
• Risk Analysts, Portfolio Managers
• Geoscientists involved in appraisal & field maturation
• Government agencies & regulators evaluating energy sector projects

Day 1 — Foundations of Petroleum Economics

Morning

• Role of economics in oil & gas decision making
• Time value of money, discount rates & WACC
• Economic indicators: NPV, IRR, PI, MIRR, payback, EMV
• Constructing deterministic cashflow models

Afternoon

• Oil & gas cost structures: CAPEX, OPEX, abandonment
• Production forecasting: profiles, decline curves, plateau constraints
• Price, cost, fiscal & technical assumptions
• Case Study: Deterministic economics for a simple oilfield

Day 2 — International Fiscal Regimes & Advanced Cashflow Modelling

Morning

• Concession vs royalty/tax vs PSC systems
• Sliding scale royalties, R-Factors, cost recovery limits
• Government take & fiscal stability analysis

Afternoon

• Midstream & LNG economic considerations
• Gas monetisation: pipeline, LNG, gas‑to‑power
• Building advanced cashflow models with fiscal terms
• Case Study: Multi-scenario fiscal modelling for an LNG project

Day 3 — Risk & Uncertainty Analysis

Morning

• Deterministic vs probabilistic modelling
• Sensitivity analysis: tornado & spider charts
• Scenario analysis (low/medium/high cases)
• Technical risk: reservoir, drilling, facilities

Afternoon

• Price volatility & market dynamics
• Inflation, exchange rate risk & stochastic variables
• Probability distributions: uniform, triangular, normal, lognormal
• Practical Exercise: Build uncertainty inputs for Monte Carlo

Day 4 — Monte Carlo Simulation, Decision Trees & VOI

Morning

• Introduction to Monte Carlo simulation for economics
• Generating probabilistic NPVs & risked project value
• P10/P50/P90 ranges & confidence intervals
• Hands‑on: Running Monte Carlo simulations

Afternoon

• Decision tree modelling for exploration & appraisal
• EMV calculation & risk-adjusted decision making
• Value of Information (VOI) & value of flexibility
• Real Options: defer, expand, abandon, switch
• Case Study: Drill / Defer / Farm‑Out decision scenario

Day 5 — Applications to Exploration, Upstream, LNG, Midstream & Portfolio Decisions

Morning

• Exploration project economics (chance of success, risked volumes)
• Upstream integrated project models (multi‑field developments)
• LNG project evaluation: liquefaction, shipping, regasification
• Midstream pipelines, storage, LPG & petrochemical economics

Afternoon

• Portfolio optimisation: ranking & selecting projects
• Capital allocation & breakeven price analysis
• Peer review & decision-quality assessment
• Integrated Case Study: Full project evaluation (risked economics + decision tree)
• Final assessment & course conclusion

CDGA attendance certificate will be issued to all attendees completing minimum of 80% of the total course duration.